What the Data Actually Shows
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission, Compassionate Release Data Report — Preliminary FY2025 (full fiscal year). View the Full USSC Data Report
Top Reasons Courts Granted Motions
Top Reasons Courts Denied Motions
Nearly 1 in 10 denied motions failed because the person never exhausted administrative remedies — a procedural mistake, not a substantive one.
Grant Rates by Federal Circuit
Your circuit matters. Grant rates vary dramatically — from 8% in the 5th Circuit to nearly 22% in the 2nd and D.C. Circuits.
Note: These figures reflect overall grant rates. Individual judges within each circuit may differ significantly. The strength of your documentation and the specifics of your case matter more than the circuit average.
What this tells you: Courts granted motions where defendants showed documented medical conditions, filed on their own behalf, and paired their qualifying trigger with a track record of rehabilitation. The denials cluster around three problems: weak evidence, skipped procedures, and failure to address the § 3553(a) factors. Every one of those is avoidable with preparation.