Why Comparing Your Case to Someone Else's Sentence Can Mislead You

Justin, how could this happen?

Someone new to our community asked me that. He wanted to know how Ippei Mizuhara, Shohei Ohtani's former interpreter, could get 57 months in federal prison while Mathew Bowyer, the bookmaker who took his bets, got a year and a day.

It's very common when you get into trouble to study other cases to try to handicap what you're going to get. To begin, I told him, it's not really the right comparison.

Ippei stole nearly $17 million

On February 6, 2025, U.S. District Judge John W. Holcomb sentenced Ippei to 57 months. He had pleaded guilty to bank fraud and subscribing to a false tax return. The judge ordered him to pay $16,975,010 in restitution to Ohtani and $1,149,400 to the IRS. (U.S. Attorney's Office, Central District of California)

And I don't care if Shohei is the greatest athlete in the world and a billionaire. He's still a victim. This case did significant damage to his brand.

How they responded

Still, even if the conduct was the same, let's assess how they responded.

I read Ippei's letter to Judge Holcomb. I did a very long YouTube video about it. In that letter, he really blamed Shohei.

It's why I tell people to get the message right before they turn anything in to the court.

Matt, I think, viewed this as an evidence challenge. No doubt Judge Holcomb would be cynical. He expects defendants to say one thing and do another.

So Matt built a comprehensive narrative about what he would do moving forward. He volunteered with Prison Professors, a charitable corporation that impacts millions of people. He spoke at business schools, including USC, sharing lessons learned and the consequences of cheating.

So look at their response. Ippei blaming and excusing. Matt owning it and creating evidence that would persuade Judge Holcomb. In my view, even if they did the same thing, Matt's sentence would be shorter.

I know because I attended the sentencing hearings. I filmed a YouTube video immediately after Matt's hearing, reciting exactly what Judge Holcomb said.

Here's how you can learn from Matt

Treat your case as an evidence challenge.

Accept that the judge is going to be skeptical. Judges are cynical. They expect us to say something and not follow through.

Before you send a letter to the court, read it again and ask two questions. Does any line point at the victim? What have I done, with a date on it, that backs up what I'm saying?

That second question is the work we do at White Collar Advice.

Create the evidence and you will benefit.

Watch the short: [YOUTUBE SHORT URL]